(sec:sylabus)=
# Syllabus

## Course Information

- **Instructor(s):** Michael McNeil Forbes [`m.forbes+581@wsu.edu`](mailto:m.forbes+581@wsu.edu)
- **Course Assistants:** 
- **Office:** Webster 947F
- **Office Hours:** F2-4 (F12-5 by appointment): iSciMath Coffee Hours in [Webster
  1243](https://sah-archipedia.org/buildings/WA-01-075-0008-13) (Band room).
- **Course Page:** <https://schedules.wsu.edu/sectionInfo/&prefix=Phys&year=2024>
- **Class Number:** 581
- **Title:** Phys 581: Estimate Anything: The Art of Play in Science
- **Credits:** 3
- **Recommended Preparation**: 
- **Meeting Time and Location:** MW, 2:00pm - 4:00pm, [Webster 941](https://sah-archipedia.org/buildings/WA-01-075-0008-13), Washington State University (WSU), Pullman, WA
- **Grading:** Grade based on participation and project.

```{contents}
```

### Prerequisites
<!-- Only required for undergraduate courses, but is useful for graduate courses -->

This course is intended for a broad audience.  As such, the only formal background
assumed is a strong background in calculus and linear algebra as described in
{ref}`sec:linear-algebra`.

Familiarity with undergraduate physics sciences will be useful, but is not required.

Additionally, you should bring to the course expert knowledge in at least one domain --
i.e. your core program -- and a passion to learn about the world in general.

Students will be expected to check their work numerically, so familiarity with a
language like Python and the NumPy and SciPy would be helpful. Instructions on how to
use the online [CoCalc][] computational platform will be provided, so students do not
need to provide their own software, compilers, etc.


### Textbooks and Resources

#### Required
<table><tr>
  <td><img alt="Guesstimation cover" 
    src="https://pup-assets.imgix.net/onix/images/9781400824441.jpg?w=410&auto=format"
    height = 250px></td>
  <td><img alt="Guesstimation 2.0 cover" 
    src="https://pup-assets.imgix.net/onix/images/9781400844661.jpg?w=410&auto=format"
    height = 250px></td>
  <td><img alt="Mahajan cover"
    src="https://mit-press-us.imgix.net/covers/9780262526548.jpg?auto=format&w=298&dpr=2&q=80"
    height = 250px></td>
  <td><img alt="What If cover"
    src="https://xkcd.com/what-if/whatif-10x-cover.png"
    height = 250px></td>
</tr>
</table>

:::{margin}
Available for [online access][Weinstein:2008 (ProQuest)] through the
[WSU Library][Weinstein:2008 (WSU Library)] (sign in with your WSU account).
:::
<!-- This must be on one line -->
[Weinstein and John, 2008: "Guesstimation: Solving the World’s Problems on the Back of a Cocktail Napkin"][Weinstein:2008 (Princeton)]
:  This is the informal textbook for the course.  It is available through the [WSU
   Library][Weinstein:2008 (WSU Library)] electronically through
   [ProQuest][Weinstein:2008 (ProQuest)] (requires WSU sign-in).  It is easy to read but
   the examples are out of date.  Use it for the techniques and advice more than the questions.

:::{margin}
Available for [online access][Weinstein:2012 (ProQuest)] through the
[WSU Library][Weinstein:2012 (WSU Library)] (sign in with your WSU account).
:::
[Weinstein, 2012: "Guesstimation 2.0: Solving Today's Problems on the Back of a Napkin"][Weinstein:2012 (Princeton)]
:  This is a followup with more relevant problems.  It is available through the [WSU
   Library][Weinstein:2012 (WSU Library)] electronically through
   [ProQuest][Weinstein:2012 (ProQuest)] (requires WSU sign-in).

:::{margin}
Available for [online access][Mahajan:2014 (MIT)] and download from MIT.
:::
[Mahajan, 2014: "The Art of Insight in Science and Engineering: Mastering Complexity"][Mahajan:2014 (MIT)]
:  This is the main technical textbook for the course.  It delves more deeply into
   technical aspects of scientific estimation, and requires more knowledge of physics.
   However, the general strategies are more important and generally applicable, and will
   form the basis for the technical aspects of the course.  It is [available
   online][Mahajan:2014 (MIT)].

:::{margin}
Available for [online access][Munroe:2014 (ProQuest)] through the
[WSU Library][Munroe:2014 (WSU Library)] (sign in with your WSU account).
:::
[Munroe, 2014: "What If? Serious Scientific Answers to Absurd Hypothetical Questions"][Munroe:2014 (Web)]
:  The class project is to write an article in the spirit and style of this book.  It is
   available through the [WSU Library][Munroe:2014 (WSU Library)] electronically through
   [ProQuest][Munroe:2014 (ProQuest)] (requires WSU sign-in).


#### Additional Resources

<table><tr>
  <td><img alt="Street-Fighting cover"
    src="https://www.e-booksdirectory.com/imglrg/1013.jpg"
    height = 250px></td>
  <td><img alt="Olshanni cover" 
    src="https://www.worldscientific.com/cms/10.1142/8811/asset/18ee8206-6118-e820-4611-ee820646118e/8811.cover.jpg"
    height = 250px></td>
  <td><img alt="What If? 2 cover" 
    src="https://xkcd.com/what-if-2/whatif2-cover.png"
    height = 250px></td>
</tr>
</table>

:::{margin}
Available for [online access][Mahajan:2010 (MIT)] and download from MIT.
:::
[Mahajan, 2010: "Street-Fighting Mathematics: The Art of Educated Guessing and Opportunistic Problem Solving"][Mahajan:2010 (MIT)] 
:  An earlier book by Mahajan aimed at mathematics.  It is [available online][Mahajan:2010 (MIT)].

:::{margin}
Available for [online access][Olshanii:2013 (ProQuest)] through the
[WSU Library][Olshanii:2013 (WSU Library)] (sign in with your WSU account).
:::
[Olshanii, 2013: "Back-of-the-Envelope Quantum Mechanics With Extensions to Many-Body Systems and Integrable PDEs"][Olshanii:2013 (WorldScientific)]
: For physicists: demonstrates more sophisticated techniques for quickly estimating
  results in quantum mechanics -- usually seen as a challenging field requiring
  lengthy calculations.  It is available through the [WSU Library][Olshanii:2013 (WSU
  Library)] electronically through [ProQuest][Olshanii:2013 (ProQuest)] (requires WSU
  sign-in).

:::{margin}
Available by request through the [WSU Library][Munroe:2022 (WSU Library)] (sign in with your WSU account).
:::
[Munroe, 2022: "What If? 2: Additional Serious Scientific Answers to Absurd Hypothetical Questions"][Munroe:2022 (Web)]
:  Additional examples for your project. It is available through the [WSU
   Library][Munroe:2022 (WSU Library)] by request, but not electronically.

[Weinstein:2008 (Princeton)]:
  <https://press.princeton.edu/books/ebook/9781400824441/guesstimation>
[Weinstein:2012 (Princeton)]:
  <https://press.princeton.edu/books/ebook/9781400844661/guesstimation-20-0>
[Weinstein:2008 (ProQuest)]:
  <https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/wsu/detail.action?docID=457714&pq-origsite=primo>
[Weinstein:2012 (ProQuest)]:
  <https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/wsu/detail.action?docID=997595&pq-origsite=primo>
[Olshanii:2013 (WorldScientific)]:
  <https://www.worldscientific.com/worldscibooks/10.1142/8811>

[Mahajan:2010 (MIT)]:
  <https://direct.mit.edu/books/oa-monograph/5339/Street-Fighting-MathematicsThe-Art-of-Educated>
[Mahajan:2014 (MIT)]:
  <https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262526548/>

[Weinstein:2008 (WSU Library)]:
  <https://searchit.libraries.wsu.edu/permalink/01ALLIANCE_WSU/1rq08rk/alma99900143225301842>
[Weinstein:2012 (WSU Library)]:
  <https://searchit.libraries.wsu.edu/permalink/01ALLIANCE_WSU/1rq08rk/alma99900143475801842>

[Mahajan:2010 (WSU Library)]:
  <https://searchit.libraries.wsu.edu/permalink/01ALLIANCE_WSU/1rq08rk/alma9910845810001842>
[Mahajan:2014 (WSU Library)]:
  <https://searchit.libraries.wsu.edu/permalink/01ALLIANCE_WSU/1rq08rk/alma99900150498901842>

[Olshanii:2013 (ProQuest)]:
  <https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/wsu/detail.action?docID=1561246&pq-origsite=primo>
[Olshanii:2013 (WSU Library)]:
  <https://searchit.libraries.wsu.edu/permalink/01ALLIANCE_WSU/1rq08rk/alma99900122206801842>

[Munroe:2014 (Web)]:
  <https://xkcd.com/what-if/>
[Munroe:2022 (Web)]:
  <https://xkcd.com/what-if-2/>

[Munroe:2014 (WSU Library)]:
  <https://searchit.libraries.wsu.edu/permalink/01ALLIANCE_WSU/1rq08rk/alma99900124901801842>
[Munroe:2014 (ProQuest)]:
  <https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/wsu/detail.action?pq-origsite=primo&docID=3305722>

[Munroe:2022 (WSU Library)]:
  <https://searchit.libraries.wsu.edu/permalink/01ALLIANCE_WSU/1rq08rk/alma99334992792201451>

Additional readings and references will be provided as needed.  Please see
{ref}`sec:readings` for details and posts on the [Discourse forum][].


(sec:SLO)=
### Student Learning Outcomes

By the end of this course, students will:

1. Be "fearlessly curious... ready to attack any problem that comes at [them], and at
   least get a feel for why things happen" {cite}`Mahajan:2014`.
2. Be able to quickly make order of magnitude estimates.
3. Be able to break down complex problems into manageable tasks.
4. Be able to use symmetry, scaling (dimensional analysis), and analogies to simplify
   complex problems without losing information.
5. Be able to make approximations, and estimate the errors incurred by such
   approximations.
6. Be able to make quick estimates using computational techniques like Monte Carlo,
   integration, series approximations, splines, etc.
7. Be able to work in a group, both as a leader, and as a knowledge expert, to solve
   complex problems.
8. Be able to communicate effectively and accurately using a variety of modalities.

To following activities will help the students achieve these outcomes:

* **Estimation Sessions**:
  Each student will lead 1-2 estimation sessions on a topic for which they **are not**
  an expert.  To complete the estimation, students must therefor organize and draw upon
  the expertise of a group or the class.  This will give students the experience of
  **collaboration**, **communication**, **critical thinking & problem solving**, and
  **leadership** -- soft skills that are invaluable for their careers.

* **Experiments**:
  Where possibly, we will attempt to perform simple experiments to test and refine our
  estimations.  See e.g. {ref}`sec:assignments`.
  
* **Reflection**:
  As a key part of the course, students regularly will reflect on their own paths to
  mastery in their lives to encourage **self-awareness & growth**.   {ref}`sec:mastery`
  is a highly personal but transferable skill: through reflection, students will learn
  how to apply the techniques that **work for them** to make rapid progress in other
  areas, such as the technical field of their dissertation.
  
  This course will not teach mastery of specific material, but will teach the skills
  needed to rapidly shift from one field to another.  This is the essence of
  estimation: learning how to quickly organize and make sense of new knowledge or data
  to orient oneself in a new field.

* **Lab Notebooks**: 
  As part of this reflection, students should keep a "Lab Notebook" for the course in
  which they document their progress.  This may be physical, or electronic.  Students
  should use this notebook to make estimates, ask and refine questions, and collect
  information. This will provide a source of material that can be used in the final
  project.

* **Final Project**:
  Students will to write an article in the spirit and style of the book [What
  It?][Munroe:2014 (Web)] in which they provide supporting estimates to answer an
  interesting question for a general audience.  This will help students gain the ability
  to communicate effectively about a technical topic like their research to
  **prospective employers**, for **public outreach**, or to **attract funding**.
  
For more details about how the activities in this course will prepare you for a
successful career, see {ref}`sec:CareerReady`

### Expectations for Student Effort

As per WSU policy, for each hour of lecture equivalent, all students should expect to
have a minimum of two hours of work outside class.  However, the intent of this course
is to minimize the amount of required work outside of class by providing time in class
to complete most of the requisite material.  Students are expected to use the additional
time outside of class applying and mastering this material in their research, and lives.

Students are expected to keep up with readings, and other material assigned in class.

### Assessment and Grading Policy

Regular attendance and participation is required to pass the course.  In addition,
students are required to keep a "lab notebook" where they will document their progress
in the course.  Students that regularly attend class, participate in class discussions,
and keep their notebook up to date will receive at least a B. Students who also
complete a satisfactory project will receive an A.

### Attendance and Make-up Policy 

While there is no strict attendance policy, students are expected attend an participate
in classroom activities and discussion. Students who miss class are expected to cover
the missed material on their own, e.g. by borrowing their classmates notes, reviewing
recorded lectures (if available), etc.

### Course Timeline
<!-- 16 Weeks -->

:::{margin}
*Week 1 / Essay 1*
:::
Dimensional Analysis, Brainstorming, and Mastery
:  - Introduction.
   - [Where do Good Ideas Come From?](https://freakonomics.com/podcast/where-do-good-ideas-come-from/)
   - **Essay**: Describe something you have mastered.
   - **Estimation Skills**: Dimensional analysis; Geometry of the derivative.
  
:::{margin}
*Week 2 / Essay 2*
:::
Probability:
:  - **Essay**: Tell us about your areas of expertise and skills.
   - **Estimation Skills**: Probabilistic reasoning; Fourier transform.


:::{margin}
*Week 3 / Essay 3*
:::
Energy:
:  - **Essay**: Tell us what you are interested in.
   - **Estimation Skills**: Energy; Circuits; Oscillators;
   

:::{margin}
*Week 4*
:::
Invariants:
:  - **Estimation Skills**: Invariants; Proving algorithmic correctness;


:::{margin}
*Weeks 5-6*
:::
Thermodynamics:
:  - **Estimation Skills**: Energy units; Thermal equilibrium; Radiation


:::{margin}
*Week 7 / Project Approval*
:::
Astronomy and Astrophysics:
:  - **Estimation Skills**: Orbits (Kepler's Law); Lumping; Easy cases; Spring models.

:::{margin}
*Week 8*
:::
Data Fitting and Uncertanties:
:  - {ref}`sec:ParameterFitting`
   - Errors and uncertainties.
   - **Estimation Skills**: Probabilistic reasoning; Bayes' Theorem; Monte Carlo

:::{margin}
*Weeks 9-13*
:::
Additional topics and student-led estimation sessions, including:
:  - Traffic flow -- estimating from PDEs, method of characteristics
   - Quantum mechanics (see {cite}`Olshanii:2013`)
   - Estimating the yield of the Trinity explosion
   - **Estimation Skills**: Method of characteristics; Variational bounds

:::{margin}
*Week 14 / Projects Due*
:::
Projects Due

:::{margin}
*Week 15*
:::
*Thanksgiving Break -- No Classes* 

:::{margin}
*Weeks 16-17*
:::
Future Directions
:  - Braininstorming big questions.
   - Ideas for research, papers, and future collaborations.

## Other Information

### Policy for the Use of Large Language Models (LLMs) or Generative AI in Physics Courses

The use of LLMs or Generative AI such as Chat-GPT is becoming prevalent, both in
education and in industry.  As such, we believe that it is important for students to
recognize the capabilities and inherent limitations of these tools, and use them
appropriately.

To this end, **please submit 4 examples of your own devising:**
* Two of which demonstrate the phenomena of "hallucination" -- Attempt to use the tool
  to learn something you know to be true, and catch it making plausible sounding
  falsehoods.
* Two of which demonstrate something useful (often the end of a process of debugging and
  correcting the AI).

Note: one can find plenty of examples online of both cases.  Use these to better
understand the capabilities and limitations of the AIs, but for your submission, please
find your own example using things you know to be true. *If you are in multiple courses,
you may submit the same four examples for each class, but are encouraged to tailor your
examples to the course.*

Being able to independently establish the veracity of information returned by a search,
an AI, or indeed any publication, is a critical skill for a scientist.  **If you are the
type of employee who can use tools like ChatGPT to write prose, code etc., but not
accurately validate the results, then you are exactly the type of employee that AI will
be able to replace.** 

Any use of Generative AI or similar tools for submitted work **must include**:
1. **A complete description of the tool.** (E.g. *"ChatGPT Version 3.5 via CoCalc's
   interface"* or *Chat-GPT 4 through Bing AI using the Edge browser"*, etc.)
2. **A complete record of the queries issued and response provided.**  (This should be
   provided as an attachment, appendices, or supplement.)
3. **An attribution statement consistent with the following:**
   *“The author generated this <text/code/etc.> in part with <GPT-3, OpenAI’s
   large-scale language-generation model/etc.> as documented in appendix <1>. Upon
   generating the draft response, the author reviewed, edited, and revised the response
   to their own liking and takes ultimate responsibility for the content.”*
   
Violation of this policy may result in failure of the assignment or course.

<!-- ### COVID-19 Statement -->
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<!-- nose and mouth must be worn by all people over the age of five while indoors in public -->
<!-- spaces.**  This includes all WSU owned and operated facilities. The state-wide mask mandate -->
<!-- goes into effect on Monday, August 23, 2021, and will be effective until further -->
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<!-- Public health directives may be adjusted throughout the year to respond to the evolving -->
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<!-- [https://wsu.edu/covid-19/](https://wsu.edu/covid-19/).  Students who choose not to -->
<!-- comply with these directives may be required to leave the classroom; in egregious or -->
<!-- repetitive cases, student non-compliance may be referred to the Center for Community -->
<!-- Standards for action under the Standards of Conduct for Students. -->

### Academic Integrity

You are responsible for reading WSU’s [Academic Integrity Policy][], which is based on
[Washington State law][]. If you cheat in your work in this class you will: 

* Fail the course.
* Be reported to the [Center for Community Standards][].
* Have the right to appeal the instructor's decision.
* Not be able to drop the course or withdraw from the course until the appeals process
  is finished.

If you have any questions about what you can and cannot do in this course, ask your instructor.

If you want to ask for a change in the instructor's decision about academic integrity,
use the form at the [Center for Community Standards][] website. You must submit this
request within 21 calendar days of the decision.

[Academic Integrity Policy]: 
  <https://communitystandards.wsu.edu/policies-and-reporting/academic-integrity-policy/>
[Washington State law]: <https://apps.leg.wa.gov/wac/default.aspx?cite=504-26-202>
[Center for Community Standards]: <https://communitystandards.wsu.edu/>

<!-- Academic integrity is the cornerstone of higher education.  As such, all members of the -->
<!-- university community share responsibility for maintaining and promoting the principles -->
<!-- of integrity in all activities, including academic integrity and honest -->
<!-- scholarship. Academic integrity will be strongly enforced in this course.  Students who -->
<!-- violate WSU's Academic Integrity Policy (identified in Washington Administrative Code -->
<!-- (WAC) [WAC 504-26-010(4)][wac 504-26-010(4)] and -404) will fail the course, will not -->
<!-- have the option to withdraw from the course pending an appeal, and will be Graduate: -->
<!-- 6300, 26300 reported to the Office of Student Conduct. -->

<!-- Cheating includes, but is not limited to, plagiarism and unauthorized collaboration as -->
<!-- defined in the Standards of Conduct for Students, [WAC 504-26-010(4)][wac -->
<!-- 504-26-010(4)]. You need to read and understand all of the [definitions of -->
<!-- cheating][definitions of cheating].  If you have any questions about what is and is not -->
<!-- allowed in this course, you should ask course instructors before proceeding. -->

<!-- If you wish to appeal a faculty member's decision relating to academic integrity, please -->
<!-- use the form available at \_communitystandards.wsu.edu. Make sure you submit your appeal -->
<!-- within 21 calendar days of the faculty member's decision. -->

<!-- Academic dishonesty, including all forms of cheating, plagiarism, and fabrication, is -->
<!-- prohibited. Violations of the academic standards for the lecture or lab, or the -->
<!-- Washington Administrative Code on academic integrity -->

### University Syllabus
<!-- Required as of Fall 2023 -->

Students are responsible for reading and understanding all university-wide policies and
resources pertaining to all courses (for instance: accommodations, care resources,
policies on discrimination or harassment), which can be found in the [university
syllabus][].

[university syllabus]: <https://syllabus.wsu.edu/university-syllabus/>

### Students with Disabilities

Reasonable accommodations are available for students with a documented
disability. If you have a disability and need accommodations to fully
participate in this class, please either visit or call the Access
Center at (Washington Building 217, Phone: 509-335-3417, E-mail:
<mailto:Access.Center@wsu.edu>, URL: <https://accesscenter.wsu.edu>) to schedule
an appointment with an Access Advisor. All accommodations MUST be
approved through the Access Center. For more information contact a
Disability Specialist on your home campus.

### Campus Safety

Classroom and campus safety are of paramount importance at Washington
State University, and are the shared responsibility of the entire
campus population. WSU urges students to follow the “Alert, Assess,
Act,” protocol for all types of emergencies and the “[Run, Hide, Fight]”
response for an active shooter incident. Remain ALERT (through direct
observation or emergency notification), ASSESS your specific
situation, and ACT in the most appropriate way to assure your own
safety (and the safety of others if you are able).

Please sign up for emergency alerts on your account at MyWSU. For more
information on this subject, campus safety, and related topics, please
view the FBI’s [Run, Hide, Fight] video and visit [the WSU safety
portal][the wsu safety portal].

### Students in Crisis - Pullman Resources 

If you or someone you know is in immediate danger, DIAL 911 FIRST! 

* Student Care Network: https://studentcare.wsu.edu/
* Cougar Transit: 978 267-7233 
* WSU Counseling and Psychological Services (CAPS): 509 335-2159 
* Suicide Prevention Hotline: 800 273-8255 
* Crisis Text Line: Text HOME to 741741 
* WSU Police: 509 335-8548 
* Pullman Police (Non-Emergency): 509 332-2521 
* WSU Office of Civil Rights Compliance & Investigation: 509 335-8288 
* Alternatives to Violence on the Palouse: 877 334-2887 
* Pullman 24-Hour Crisis Line: 509 334-1133 

[communitystandards.wsu.edu]: https://communitystandards.wsu.edu/
[definitions of cheating]: https://apps.leg.wa.gov/WAC/default.aspx?cite=504-26-010
[run, hide, fight]: https://oem.wsu.edu/emergency-procedures/active-shooter/
[the wsu safety portal]: https://oem.wsu.edu/about-us/
[wac 504-26-010(4)]: https://apps.leg.wa.gov/WAC/default.aspx?cite=504-26
[SSH]: <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secure_Shell> "SSH on Wikipedia"
[CoCalc]: <https://cocalc.com> "CoCalc: Collaborative Calculation and Data Science"
[GitLab]: <https://gitlab.com> "GitLab"
[GitHub]: <https://github.com> "GitHub"
[Git]: <https://git-scm.com> "Git"
[Anki]: <https://apps.ankiweb.net/> "Powerful, intelligent flash cards."
[Discourse forum]: <https://discourse.iscimath.org/t/physics-581-estimate-anything-fall-2024/1015>

[Official Course Repository]: <https://gitlab.com/wsu-courses/iSciMath-581-Estimation> "Official Course Repository hosted on GitLab"
[Shared CoCalc Project]: <https://cocalc.com/e9b148e8-3683-4222-b4b3-21f717a60cd3/> "Shared CoCalc Project"
[WSU Courses CoCalc project]: <https://cocalc.com/projects/c31d20a3-b0af-4bf7-a951-aa93a64395f6>